The figure caused quite a stir—but that was exactly the plan. Just in time for the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos, a new study made headlines last Monday with the claim that the advance of the digital world into factories and offices could cost more than five million jobs by 2020. According to the World Economic Forum’s publication, the Fourth Industrial Revolution will render approximately 7 million traditional jobs obsolete in the major developed and emerging economies, while creating only about 2 million jobs with new skill requirements.
So far, so alarmist. The question is simply this: How realistic is the bleak scenario painted by the Davos study? Is it actually a foregone conclusion that this will happen?
Jörg Hofmann has serious doubts. “As for how many jobs will be lost and how many new ones will be created, we must remain skeptical regarding the empirical evidence behind these findings,” said the chairman of IG Metall at the second meeting of the “Future of Work” advisory board, which brought experts from companies in the metal and electrical industries, academia, and politics to Frankfurt.
The committee, led by Jörg Hofmann and coordinated by the “Future of Work” department—and comprising, among others, executive board members, general works council chairs, renowned scholars, and state secretaries—has set itself the task of identifying changes in the world of work at an early stage and exploring opportunities for employees to shape these changes. At the advisory board meeting, the topic of education was examined from various perspectives and angles. “The transformation of the world of work is bringing education into the spotlight,” said Jörg Hofmann. “After all, this transformation can only be understood if it is embedded in new educational concepts, new forms of education, and, above all, in a new normal for corporate training culture.”
The advisory board members in Frankfurt engaged in an in-depth discussion on how this can be achieved and what is required to do so. One thing is clear: advancing digitalization presents both opportunities and risks; it will dramatically transform the world of work—the qualitative findings from the Davos study on this topic are particularly interesting: The study predicts that there will be a shift in the core requirements for employees over the next five years. These core requirements consist of fundamental cognitive, social, and personal skills—ranging from self-directed learning to creativity, and from basic IT skills to systems thinking. According to Jörg Hofmann, the study “emphatically confirms the central importance of education as an employment strategy in a world of work that is undergoing radical change.” Methodologically, however, it has major weaknesses. This assessment was shared by the panel—and is documented below with three selected statements.
- Prof. Dr. Sabine Pfeiffer, University of Hohenheim:
“The study is methodologically flawed: only 371 HR managers from the world’s largest employers were surveyed. That is anything but representative. And drawing conclusions based on this data for a wide variety of industries, countries, and occupations is highly questionable from a methodological standpoint. Germany is characterized by a strong presence of small and medium-sized enterprises and has a robust, innovative industrial core. Furthermore, thanks to its vocational education system, Germany has a workforce structure in which even mid-level employees are exceptionally well-trained. This means the conditions in Germany are significantly different. If the potential of these well-trained employees is incorporated in a participatory manner into the design of the “Work 4.0” landscape today, then new technologies can be used to create good work. This opportunity is still available. We just have to seize it.”
- Prof. Dr. Henning Kargermann, acatech – German Academy of Science and Engineering:
“Digitalization is transforming both the world of work and corporate culture. But there will still be no such thing as a factory without people in the future. Automation will eliminate certain jobs. However, these potential job losses can be more than offset by the growth impulses generated by Industry 4.0 and smart services. This requires increased efforts in education and training. Only in this way can we succeed in bringing all employees along with us.”
- Prof. Dr. Christoph Igel, DFKI Berlin
“In times of increasing digitalization, education and training will be of crucial importance for the individual. Mastering growing complexities, the agile development of content, and the required flexibility demand new skills, new educational content, and—in particular—new methods at all levels of industrial production, such as workplace-integrated training. The task now is to combine proven concepts—such as dual vocational training or continuing education and training alongside work, for which we are envied worldwide—with new opportunities offered by digitalization and digital learning. I am very confident that we in Germany will then be able to shape a positive trend in the labor market. The digitalization of education and training will play a key role in this.”
