Frankfurt am Main – By 2030, one in every two jobs in passenger car powertrain technology could be directly or indirectly affected by electromobility. This is the conclusion reached by the study “Effects of Vehicle Electrification on Employment in Germany (ELAB)” conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering IAO. According to the study, assuming likely future developments, electrification and productivity gains will result in a net loss of approximately 75,000 jobs in powertrain technology in Germany. This figure already takes into account the creation of approximately 25,000 new jobs for components such as batteries and power electronics. The automotive industry in Germany employs around 840,000 people, including approximately 210,000 in powertrain manufacturing.
The results do not provide grounds for scaremongering, said Jörg Hofmann, President of IG Metall, during the presentation of the study on Monday evening in Frankfurt. “The challenge is great, but it can be overcome if the right framework conditions are created now,” Hofmann emphasized. He holds policymakers and companies responsible. “Policymakers and companies must now develop strategies to shape this transformation. Policymakers must support the necessary structural change in the automotive industry with targeted industrial and employment policies; companies, above all, must ensure—through a massive training initiative—that workers do not fall by the wayside during this transformation.” Hofmann called on policymakers and employers to put robust concepts and proposals into action now. “We must use the coming years to set these necessary adjustment processes in motion—but the course for this is being set today,” said the IG Metall chairman.
Measured against Germany’s total workforce of more than 44 million, this potential job loss is small, said Professor Dr. Oliver Riedel, director of the Fraunhofer IAO. “However, depending on the company and region, the consequences can be significant. For example, when smaller companies cannot offset losses in sales of components for internal combustion engines, or when there are hardly any alternative employment opportunities in structurally weak regions.”
The study was initiated by IG Metall, BMW, Volkswagen, Daimler, Robert Bosch, ZF Friedrichshafen, Schaeffler, Mahle, and the German Association of the Automotive Industry. Researchers at Fraunhofer IAO analyzed the employment impact of electromobility across three scenarios. The focus is on a scenario in which, by 2030, one-quarter of vehicles are purely electric, 15 percent are plug-in hybrids, and 60 percent have a more efficient gasoline or diesel engine. Plug-in hybrids play a particularly significant role. Because they combine both types of propulsion, they have positive consequences for both climate and employment policy. All scenarios assume that the components for hybrid and fully electric vehicles are largely manufactured in Germany.
The study is based on production data from the participating companies. The share of employment analyzed in this study represents more than half of the value chains in powertrain technology in Germany. The results are therefore highly valid.
